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Cake day: February 16th, 2024

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  • That’s a nice fantasy, but, it’s not real. This will be painful for the US and it will have less of an ability to leverage its ability to project power for diplomatic gains, it will be far more painful for the overwhelming majority of the rest of the world. The only winners in this are Russia and Iran (pending sanctions relief and the ability to rebuild their infrastructure), but the US and China (and their closest economic partners) lose the least, and between nations that’s as near as makes no difference to winning.

    For as long as the US remains a cohesive entity, it will remain a world power, if maybe not the global hegemon that it has been, but it’s a long road from here to there and despite the best attempts of Trump et al, we’re not there yet and there are many things that could yet happen to derail that process.