• 26 Posts
  • 157 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Still scary with how far/close it got.

    I’m still not clear what would have happened if rioters had actually beaten Congressional Reps to the door.

    Let’s say Mike Pence really did get lynched. And Nancy Pelosi had to watch her desk get crapped on. And then the capital building is surrounded by the DC police. And there’s a high profile hostage crisis, while whomever did get out reconvenes to decide what to do next.

    Does anyone believe Joe Biden doesn’t still get sworn in?

    This is the Presidency not a game of tag. Who is still going to take orders from a Trump admin on these terms? Everyone - Republicans included - wanted that asshole gone by the end of 2024.


  • Trump has practically giftwrapped oppo ads

    When you’ve gerrymandered all the districts and you’re threatening to federalize state elections? When Silicon Valley owns all the venues those oppo ads would run? When your response to every defeat is to deny it is happening and double down on the military?

    I just don’t think Scary Voice Ads during the Late Show With Not Steven Colbert Cause He’s Fired are going to make a huge difference.

    Like, I’m not a doomer. I don’t think “Democracy is Over!” Because, if Trump had the means to make Democracy Go Away, he’d have done it during the 2025 gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. But it’s crazy to think Ad Buys are going to be what decide the next election cycle.















  • The planting season is happening right now

    Which means the planting supplies were lined up months ago. This will be a next-year thing if it cannot be corrected for in time.

    The LNG plants are going to take years to repair

    One section of one country’s exports in a global economy. And that’s ignoring the fact that the Straight isn’t shut down for everyone. The IRGC is negotiating passage for a bunch of unaligned states. Pakistan is going to get their fertilizer. China and Russia will get their supplies. Italy and Spain will be fine. It’s the US-Israel block that’s in trouble. And given how much fertilizer the US produces domestically, not even that much trouble.

    However, some developing countries will have genuine shortages.

    The biggest threat to developing countries is western intervention. The famines happening along the Horn of Africa are the direct result of US, Israeli, and Qatari backed military interventions.


  • There’s almost certainly going to be a farming crisis

    Over a long enough timeline, sure.

    We’ve already seen egg prices skyrocket thanks to bird flu and beef production sag due to drought and Texas Cattle Fever. I have no doubt we’ll continue to see agricultural productivity drag as ecological conditions worsen.

    But the fixation on the Straight of Hormuz as a but-for cause to a global agricultural crash jumps the gun for a host of reasons. The most notable of which is that we heavily overproduce agricultural goods and end up subsidizing their wholesale prices. The biggest problems populations have with famine in the modern era is of storage, distribution, and financialization, not raw productivity. A hiccup in the supply of nitrogen rich fertilizer isn’t going to empty anyone’s shelves.