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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Yeah I get that the centre of the distribution is on the bullseye, it just doesn’t fit with the ordinary meaning of the word “accurate.”

    It also falls apart with a small sample size. If I fire only a single shot and hit the bullseye, that doesn’t tell you anything. However, in everyday speech most people would describe that as an accurate shot.




  • The high accuracy, low precision regime seems so strange to me! I think not many would call that situation “high accuracy” with most of the shots missing the bullseye!

    Plus it seems like if you just keep increasing accuracy, you necessarily force all the shots to converge on the bullseye, don’t you? Then you get precision “for free” which is strange!











  • Cognitive dissonance isn’t a skill, it’s a bias. Generally the way it goes is that the worse things get, the tighter people hold on to their existing belief.

    Think about it like this: people living in a prehistoric village are suffering from a famine. Under a lot of stress, people start arguing with each other about what the group should be doing. One person is suffering from cognitive dissonance because they believe the group has the wrong idea. Now, should that person abandon the group and go off on their own? Or should they stick it out and just try to survive?

    Evolution favours sticking with the group. Hence cognitive dissonance resolves into status quo bias. Now you might say we’re no longer in that sort of situation. That doesn’t matter actually, because our brains are basically the same as they were 10,000 years ago! We have all the same biases, it’s our environment that has changed so much.

    So why is it different for you or me? Simple. We’re part of different groups than they are.