The Gulf monarchies are unsustainable as anything other than vassal states. If they play nice with the biggest bullies, they get paid handsomely and a small fraction of them can be rich beyond reason and fly around in luxury jets with their personal organ donors.

Except now Iran is calling the bluff of the big bully, demonstrating that America and Israel won’t protect them.

It is. As a European, essentially all of Europe trusted the US until the Iran war. Proof: Sweden and Finland just recently joined NATO, and it was because we ultimately wanted to be in an alliance with the US.

But I think we finally woke up.

He’s not asking for your pity, or mine. He’s explaining why he and many other Americans are feeling helpless and are finding it difficult to mount a resistance, eventhough they know they should.

Interstingly sanctions had this same effect on the Iranian middle class. No way to revolt and replace the government when your rent is double your income.

Yes but some of them chanted Death to America – completely uncalled for – so what goes around comes around

Vance, while clearly evil, is intelligent and flexible. I think that with some help he could find serious negotiators to send, and then he’d just need to make sure that there is clear communication.

To be clear, I don’t think he will do that, because he’s also a coward, but I think it is within his ability to do so.

You’re right, I should have been more explicit that I don’t count our amoeba EU leaders as people.

I think a lot of Europeans genuinely believe in human rights and a rules-based world order. And it would serve their interests too (in a multipolar world, having rules that apply to all is favorable to all). But they’re also cowards and want the USA to be world police and uphold this order, and it has always been convenient to look the other way as long as it was brown people on the receiving end of the Empire’s violence.

Because all sides have so much to lose, so they’ll pursue maximalist goals. The US retreating essentially means giving up the Gulf and by extension the Middle East, which is central to their doctrine of energy domination and a huge part of their leverage over Asia.

Iran on the other hand is fighting for its survival and needs to expel the US from the Gulf to ensure they can nevet attack them again.

They never cared about international law or right and wrong. It was always just a tool to bludgeon the other team with, and now that the tool is turning against them they’re dropping it like a broken toy.

I don’t think a path for deescalation exists anymore. JD Vance could maybe have taken the reigns by referring to Trump’s ill health, promised to send more competent negotiators who could meet Iran in good faith, and essentially dropped Israel to save America (or at least give it a few more good years).

But that’s a very tall order, and he just went out to claim Iran is designing nuclear suicide vests, so I guess he watched Wag the Dog and took some inspiration.

It’s Eagle vs. Cat.

Yep. Doctors and randos alike will keep telling you to just try harder. Fuck that.

Read a book. Work some more on your project. Go for a run. Don’t try to sleep.